Original Research Article
Year: 2017 | Month: December | Volume: 4 | Issue: 12 | Pages: 29-33
Earthquake Risk Assessment by Using Collective Risk Models
Harun Yonar*, Dr. Neslihan Iyit1*
1Assist.Prof,
*Selcuk University, Science Faculty, Statistics Department, Konya, Turkey
Corresponding Author: Dr. Neslihan Iyit
ABSTRACT
In this study, we aimed to determine and evaluate the risk uncertainties in natural disaster planning especially for earthquakes by using collective risk model (CRM). We investigated destructive earthquakes in the world having magnitude 7.5 or greater and damage amount approximately $1 million or more between 1980 and 2014. The total amount of earthquake damage is calculated after the distribution of the number of earthquakes is determined to be Poisson, and the amount of damage is log-normal. The results are evaluated for various risk loading factors by using the premium principle method based on the expected value principle (EVP) and the standard deviation (SDP) principle. As a result of this study, for small risk loading factors such as 0.1 and 0.2, the minimum total amount of earthquake damages in the world are determined by using EVP and SDP principles. As the risk loading factors increase, total amount of earthquake damages in the world in magnitude 7.5 or greater are beginning to increase significantly.
Key words: Earthquake, collective risk model, expected value principle, standard deviation principle.
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