Original Research Article
Year: 2014 | Month: 10 | Volume: 1 | Issue:
2 | Pages: 08-19
Determinants of the HIV/AIDS Epidemics
Prevalence in Cameroon
Etengeneng Esther Agbor1, Mbu Daniel
Tambi2
1Department of Biochemistry, 2Department
of Agricultural Economics, University of Dschang, Cameroon
ABSTRACT
This
study attempts to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of HIV/AIDS epidemics prevalence in
Cameroon. The objectives are: examine the factors influencing the prevalence of
HIV/AIDS in Cameroon, explore the factors fuelling HIV/AIDS by age group,
decompose the determinants of the prevalence of HIV/AIDS by educational level
and suggest policies to ameliorate HIV/AIDS prevalence on the basis of our
analysis. We used the OLS estimate to compute our 2011 DHS data in STATA 10.1.
The results show that factors such as: marital status, education in complete
years of schooling, labour participation, sex of household head, occupation,
household residence, frequency of listening to the radio and wealth status are
strong determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Cameroon. Result by age group
reveals that age group 15 to 24 years is hardest hit by HIV/AIDS and second by
25 to 34 years. This is partly due to their vulnerable characteristics
(naivety, dependence, decision making, activeness, transition, tenderness,
schooling, job seeking as well as attractive/beauty stage of life) and on the
other part, it’s due to their exploratory stage of life. The result by
education level shows that HIV/AIDS affects more, people who did not go to
school due to their inadequate knowledge in HIV/AIDS issues. Based on these
results, we recommend that decision makers and academic authorities should
design adult literacy programs and school courses gear towards HIV/AIDS
awareness. This is a logical step towards poverty reduction in Cameroon due to
HIV/AIDS complications.
Keywords: Determinants, HIV/AIDS epidemics, Prevalence, Ordinary Least Square, Cameroon
INTRODUCTION
The
human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been described in rural Cameroon as a
killer disease due to the number of lives and livelihoods of many people
destroyed on daily basis around the world. In spite of increased funding, political commitment and progress in
expanding access to HIV treatment, the acquired immune deficiency syndrome
(AIDS) epidemic continues against the global response. The epidemic remains
extremely dynamic. It is expanding fast and also changing its character as the
virus exploits new opportunities for transmission. Hence, the number of people
living with HIV/AIDS is growing substantially from year to year. HIV/AIDS has
become a major development concern in many countries and international
organization (United Nations, World Bank) since the epidemic was recognized in
the year 1980 (Woldemariame, 2013).
It’s
worth mentioning that, AIDS is a global epidemic which is caused by the virus
called human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It affects the immune system of the
body of human beings. Since 1980 about 20 million people died and 38 million
people are estimated living with HIV in the world (Alemayehu and Aregay, 2012).
The rate of infection of the epidemic is still increasing in many countries of
the world and it is distributed unevenly. For instance, Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) continues
to bear a significant load of HIV patients (Garenne, 2008). In mid 2010, 68% of all people
living with HIV resided in SSA, a region that represents only 12% of the world
population. In 2009, one third (1/3) of all people living with HIV worldwide
resided in the 10 countries of Southern Africa (South Africa, Angola, Botswana,
Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe). These 10
countries accounted for 31% of people contracting HIV, and 34% of all people
dying from HIV related reason in 2009 people (Alemayehu and
Aregay, 2012).
In
Cameroon, the health of the population has deteriorated considerably since
early 1990s, in this the mortality rate, increased by 12% between 1991 and
1998, chronic malnutrition rate for children 12 to 23 months old also rose from
23% to 29% and the rate of delivery attended by qualified practitioners
(doctors and nurses) declined by 5% during the same period (Tambi, 2014).
Particularly with HIV/AIDS, in 2010 there are an estimated 560,000 Cameroonians living with HIV. Cameroon
has more people living with HIV than either the North Africa region or the
Caribbean. HIV prevalence is growing rapidly. In 1990, there were fewer than
32,000 HIV seropositive Cameroonians. By 1995, the number of people living with
HIV increased more than eight times to 264,000. At current rates, there will be
about 726,000 of people living with HIV in 2020. An even larger number of
people could be infected if the national response to HIV is not fully funded
and implemented. The majority of infected people do not know they are infected
and hence may not take precautions to protect their partners (UNAIDS,
2010).
In Cameroon, women are more likely
to be HIV positive than men, roughly three in five (60%) of people living with
HIV are women. Young women are especially vulnerable to HIV infection. Young
women represent seven in ten (70%) of all youth ages 15–24 who are HIV positive
and this higher rate of infection is
projected to continue over the next ten years (UNAIDS, 2010). The number of children orphaned
by AIDS children under age 18 who have lost one or both parents to AIDS has
increased dramatically, rising from 13,000 orphans in 1995 to 304,000 in 2010.
By 2020, this number is projected to rise to 350,000. Children orphaned by AIDS
represent about 25 percent of Cameroon’s total 1,200,000 orphans in 2010 (Awuba
and Macassa, 2007).
To halt the devastating effects of
this epidemic, Cameroon needs to expand HIV and AIDS treatment, care, and
support services and prevent mother-to-child transmission and other new infections
among the general population and most-at-risk groups. Cameroon’s future
response requires strong political commitment and the allocation of financial
resources at all levels. The response to HIV and AIDS is not short term. The government, civil society, and
international partners have integral and complementary roles to play in the
development of a sustainable national response
As
intimated in Foretia Foundation (2012) lecture notes, the implementation of
country-based preventive and therapeutic interventions has made enormous
progress. In Cameroon for instance, a National and Strategic Plan to fight
against HIV/AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Diseases coordinated by the Minister
of Public Health focuses on individuals that are most at risk such as women,
youths and disabled people. The National AIDS Control Committee designs
strategies to efficiently fight against HIV/AIDS nationwide. Social Marketing
has proved to be efficient especially among the youth, with initiatives such as
the fun and informative ‘100% Jeune Magazine’ and other initiatives such as
‘Vacances sans SIDA’, which is an interactive nationwide campaign that aims to sensitize
the youth, on HIV issues during the school holidays. The Chantal Biya
Foundation is also well known for various actions that aim to eradicate the
pandemic, especially in the field of research on HIV as noted in Foretia
Foundation (2012).
Despite prevention efforts and
successes Cameroon has known so far, commitments and continuous investments are
still needed to support comprehensive approaches needed to improve sexual and
reproductive health. Further, Apart from the medical, NGO and support groups
literature, the subject of HIV/AIDS has not yet been wide disseminated in
Cameroon in terms of scientific publish articles. Some of the authors that have
shared light in this domain are Awuba and Macassa (2007) they
investigated the gender differentials in HIV/AIDS in Cameroon and to which
extent gender was taken into account in the country’s current policy on
HIV/AIDS. Others include UNAIDS (2010)
and Garenne (2008), however, none of this study has focus on the determinants
of HIV/AIDS using the Cameroon demographic and health survey also most of the
existing literature in this domain has use only primary data. This study is
therefore new in that we uses econometrics model of ordinary least square in
STATA 10.1 to compute our results. To do this, we examine the following
objectives: (1) examine the determinants of the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, (2)
explore the factors fuelling HIV/AIDS by age group, (3) decompose the
determinants of the prevalence of HIV/AIDS by educational level and (4) derive
policy implication on the basis of our analysis.
METHODOLOGY
Theoretical
framework
In
this analytical framework we apply the classical linear regression model (CLRM) that focuses on a
fixed number of observations. The finite sample of the linear model contrasts
with other approaches which study the asymptotic behaviour of the ordinary least square (OLS)
that has infinity infinite observations. This CLRM deals with a great number of
assumptions/properties that render it used in statistical analysis appropriate:
firstly, the linear functional form must be correctly specified; secondly, the
errors in the regression should have conditional mean zero (Graham et al., 2003). This strict exogeneity assumption
implies that the errors have mean zero and that the regressors are uncorrelated
with the errors. The exogeneity assumption is critical for the OLS theory. If
this assumption holds then the regressor variables will be exogenous, however, if it does not,
then those regressors that are correlated with the error term will be endogenous making the OLS estimates
invalid. In such case the method of instrumental variables may be used to carry out inference.
The third assumption of CLRM is that
the regressors must all be linearly independent. If this assumption is violated, the
regressors become linearly dependent or perfectly
multicollinear.
Fourthly, there is the assumption of homoscedasticity which means that the error term has
the same variance in each observation. If this requirement is violated, then we
will have heteroscedasticity, implying a more efficient estimator would be weighted least squares. If the errors have infinite
variance then the OLS estimates will also have infinite variance (although by
the law of large numbers they will nonetheless tend toward
the true values so long as the errors have zero mean). In this case, robust estimation techniques are recommended (Graham et al.,
2003). We equally have on the fifth
position, the non-autocorrelation assumption; which mean that, the errors are uncorrelated between observations. However, this assumption may be
violated in the context of time
series data, panel
data, cluster
samples, hierarchical data, repeated measures data, longitudinal data, and
other data with dependencies. In these cases, the generalized least squares provide a better alternative than
the OLS. Lastly, we have the assumption of normality, where we assume that the
errors should have a normal distribution condition on the regressors: This
assumption is not needed for the validity of the OLS method, although certain
additional finite-sample properties can be established in case when it does
(especially in the area of hypotheses testing). Furthermore, when the errors
are normal, the OLS estimator is equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and therefore it is
asymptotically efficient in the class of all regular estimators (Graham et al., 2003).
Methodology
As
seen from the theoretical framework, we used the weighted ordinary least square
(OLS) to determine the factors fuelling HIV/AIDS in Cameroon. The OLS regression is a generalized
linear modeling technique that may be used to model either a single response or
multiple explanatory variables which has been recorded on an interval scale.
The technique may be applied to either a single or multiple explanatory
variables as well as categorical explanatory variables that have been
appropriately coded (Hutcheson, 2011). OLS regression is particularly powerful as it’s relatively
easy to check the model assumption such as linearity, constant variance and the
effect of outliers in a given data set (Hutcheson and Sofroniou, 1999).
Specifically our model can assume the following simple form:
(1)
Where by
represent men and women tested HIV
seropositive and it’s the dependent variable of the study,
is the multiple explanatory variables (such as
education, marital status, occupation),
indicates the value of
when all values of the explanatory variables
are zero, and
indicates
the average change in
that is associated with a unit change in
while
controlling for the other explanatory variables in the model. Model-fit can be
accessed through comparing deviance measures of nested models and
is unobserved scalar random variables (errors) which account for the discrepancy
between the actually observed responses
and the
"predicted outcomes”
. This method minimizes the sum of squared vertical
distances between the observed responses in the dataset and the responses predicted by the
linear approximation.
From equation (1), the least squares estimates in this case
can be reformulated to give the weighted ordinary least square estimator as
follows:
(2)
In this
case the predicted value of h when all values of the explanatory
variables are zero will be as follows:
(3)
It should be noted that, the
estimator
is linear in
, meaning that it represents a linear combination of
the dependent variable
. The weights in this linear combination are functions
of the regressors
, and generally are unequal. The observations with
high weights are influential in that they have a more pronounced effect on the
value of the estimator. The OLS estimator is consistent when the regressors are exogenous and there is no perfect multi-collinearity, and optimal in the class of linear unbiased estimators
when the errors are homoscedastic and serially
uncorrelated.
Under these conditions, the method of OLS provides minimum-variance
mean-unbiased estimation when the errors have finite variances. Under the additional
assumption that the errors be normally distributed, OLS is the maximum likelihood estimator.
Following Yule (1909), the OLS
estimator is identical to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under the normality
assumption for the error terms. This normality assumption has historical
importance, as it provided the basis for the early work in linear regression
analysis. From the properties of MLE, we can infer that the OLS estimator in
this study is asymptotically efficient (in the sense of attaining the Cramér-Rao bound for variance) and the normality assumption is satisfied. In
this case, Graham
et al (2003) revealed that, this method seems to work satisfactorily in
practice but one should always remember that the aim of the analysis is to
evaluate the ability to predict actual HIV/AIDS determinants and not their
logarithms. Values of
and other indices of concordance of observed and
predicted values (see table 2 below) must be evaluated using the observed and
predicted HIV/AIDS determinants (not their logarithms). More importantly, it
should be noted that, even though the weighted ordinary least-squares methods
used in this study, produce unbiased estimates of HIV/AIDS determinants, it’s
possible that the predicted actual determinants and the total determinants
derived from the individual predictions can be biased (Graham et al., 2003). However,
Graham et al (2003) further explained that the bias-reduction methods are
available (e.g. the non-parametric method called ‘smearing’ as already
discussed in Duan (1983), hence, this underestimation will not be a serious
problem as long as it is recognized by the investigator.
Data setting
Demographic and
Health Survey (DHS)
We
use the 2011 DHS to analyze our result. In Cameroon, the Ministry of Economic
Affairs, Programming and Regional Development is the executing agency of the
DHS while the National Institute of Statistics collects the data. The 2011 DHS
was realized after the first, second and third DHS in 1991, 1998 and 2004 was
collected respectively. The 2011 DHS was aimed at a national representative
sample of about 11732 households with women of reproductive age, alive and
living within the selected zones of sample as well as a sub sample of about 50%
of households for the men. The results of these surveys were presented for
Cameroon, Yaounde, Douala, other towns, urban and rural zones (see Tambi,
2014).
Our
unit of observation is the men and women tested HIV seropositive in 2011. The
HIV variable was imported in to the DHS from UNAIDS/WHO collected respectively
in 2011 in Cameroon. The reason for importing this variable in to the data set
is because the DHS 2011 did not contain the variable of individuals tested
seropositive of HIV. The exogenous variables are: marital status, education in
complete years of schooling, labour participation, sex of household head,
occupation, household of residence, frequency of listening radio, wealth index
and the use of condom in sex (see also Tambi, 2014 for detail analysis).
RESULT & DISCUSSION
We
present the results of the weighted sample characteristics of determinants of
HIV/AIDS; determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence; determinants of HIV/AIDS
prevalence by age groups and
the determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence by educational level.
Weighted Sample
Characteristics of determinants of HIV/AIDS
As
indicated in table 1 below, about 19.01 percent of the sample population was
tested seropositive of HIV/AIDS for both male and female sex of age 16.5 to
71.5 years however, this value is relatively small given that only 19.5 percent
of the population uses condom in sexual activities. In addition, we observed that
8.5 percent of the sample population is married with about 4.47 percent working
in the agricultural sector as well as 68.45 percent currently engage in full
work participation. Most of the
households are headed by the male gender to about 85.9 percent with about 39.4
percent living in the urban centers; despite this percentage about 53.8 percent
of households of the sample population in 2011 is non-poor. The level of
education in complete years of schooling is 64.9 percent, the figure seems to
be real in the sense that the level of instruction in Cameroon since 2000s has
risen and the rate of family awareness so far as education is concern is high,
not-with-standing, it’s surprising that only 45.2 percent is listening to radio
to at least once a week.
Considering
the variables identifying age group, we observe that in 2011 CDHS, a greater
portion of the population is concentrated in the age group 25 to 34 years with
about 47 percent. This age group is second by 15 to 24 years to 31.4 percent
while on the third position is 35 to 44 years with about 19.5 percent and
lastly above 45 years that made up 1.7 percent of the total sample population
in 2011 respectively.
Making
allusion to variables identifying education level, we realized that though
generally the level of education in completed years is high, about 66 percent
of the sample households for both male and female headed individuals did not
actually go to school. The highest category is those that attended primary
school with about 69.8 percent confirming the high percentage of those that
completed school. About 55.8 percent attended secondary school while 7.8
percent pursued higher education in Cameroon as computed in the demographic and
health survey 2011 respectively.
Determinants of
HIV/AIDS Prevalence
Table
2 presents estimates of the HIV/AIDS function under different assumptions using
individuals tested seropositive of HIV/AIDS as the main dependent variable,
while controlling for other correlates. We assume that (i) since our dependent
variable is negative (individuals seropositive), it means the positive values
of our explanatory variables signify an inverse relationship while negative
values stands for direct relationship, (ii) the linear functional form is correctly specified; (iii) the errors in the regression has conditional mean zero, (iv) the weighted OLS solves the problem of heteroscedasticity while the
nature of our variables (linearly independent) takes care of the
multicolinearity. This has much to do with explaining our results. The result
of linear regression (OLS) estimates of the structural parameters reveals that
education in complete years of schooling, occupation, marital status, current
employment, the used of condom/preservatives for sexual activities, sex of
household, listening to radio and wealth status of households are variables
significantly correlating with seropositive of HIV/AIDS while age and household
residence are not correlating with HIV/AIDS tested positive.
Table 1: Weighted Sample Descriptive
Statistics
Variable
|
Obs
|
Weight
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
HIV/AIDS (1= tested seropositive, 0 otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.1901
|
3021.169
|
200
|
8700
|
Education of respondents in complete number of
years
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.649997
|
7.977975
|
0
|
17
|
Age of respondents given in years
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.55582
|
16.00054
|
16.5
|
71.5
|
Respondents occupation (1=agriculture, 0
otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.0447721
|
0.218775
|
0
|
2
|
Marital status (1= married, 0 otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.0854546
|
0.2795689
|
0
|
1
|
Respondents currently working (1= working, 0
otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.6845337
|
0.4647211
|
0
|
1
|
Use of condom during sex (1= actually used condom,
0 otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.1950856
|
0.3962835
|
0
|
1
|
Sex of household sex (1= male, 0 otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.8590341
|
0.3480012
|
0
|
1
|
Listen to radio (1= actually listen to radio, 0
otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.4524449
|
0.4977546
|
0
|
1
|
Wealth status of households (1= non-poor
households, 0 otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.5383972
|
0.4985447
|
0
|
1
|
Household residence (1= urban, 0 otherwise)
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.3943723
|
0.4887363
|
0
|
1
|
Variables Identifying
Age Group
|
||||||
Age group15_24
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.3149176
|
0.4645029
|
0
|
2
|
Age group25_34
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.4727361
|
0.4992774
|
0
|
2
|
Age group35_44
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.1951183
|
0.3963086
|
0
|
2
|
Age group > 45
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.017228
|
0.1301255
|
0
|
2
|
Variables
Identifying Educational Level
|
||||||
No education
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.6642033
|
0.8140004
|
0
|
2
|
Primary education
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.6982458
|
0.7543898
|
0
|
2
|
Secondary education
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.5586485
|
0.7214986
|
0
|
2
|
Higher education
|
11732
|
92436.0211
|
0.0789023
|
0.314065
|
0
|
2
|
Source: Computed
by authors from 2011 DHS.
Considering
education, we observed that the higher
the level of education in complete years of schooling, the lesser the level of
HIV/AIDS prevalence in the range 16.5 to 71.5 years. This means that the more
an individual is inform about the dangers of HIV/AIDS the greater they will
avoid the epidemic, implying that the lower
the level of education, the more the
spread of HIV infection. In consistent with this observation, Tiruneh (2009)
noted that more often than not, many people in SSA do not fully understand the
connection between unsafe sexual practices and sexually transmitted diseases.
thus, the lack of education seems to contribute to the spread of the HIV
infection, since less educated migrant workers in particular and less educated
populous of a given society in general are likely to practice unsafe sex.
Further, Tiruneh (2009) cited that Brockerhoff and Biddlecom (1999) explained
that persons with higher education in Kenya are likely to avoid risky sexual
behavior.
From
table 2, the age of adolescence and adults is insignificant, revealing that age
singularly does not play any major role in determining HIV/AIDS. However, we
understand that any community where the rate of rape, sexual harassment,
promiscuity and juvenile delinquency is high irrespective of the age, the
probability of HIV/AIDS prevalence will be high. Further poor cultural
practices (promotion of early marriage, genital mutilation, and home delivery
before marriage) encourage HIV prevalence. Household residence is insignificant
meaning that one can contract HIV any where there is unsafe activity. However, it’s easier to have HIV/AIDS in the
villages than the cities given that some of the local communities are so remote
to the extent that it’s difficult to find preservatives or access information
(radio, newspaper, television), consequently the tendency will be for the
people to indulge in unsafe sex. The rationale for age and resident is that
these factors singly can not affect HIV/AIDS prevalence in Cameroon but can be
complemented by other factors to influence HIV/AIDS prevalence.
Occupation
and employment status of an individual can determine HIV/AIDS prevalence as
revealed in table 2. Considering, the agricultural sector, we observe that
HIV/AIDS are inversely related meaning that those working in this sector are
less affected by the epidemic. This may
be due to the fear of the disease, in most agricultural community in Cameroon,
HIV/AIDS is commonly called the ‘killer disease’ and many believed that there
is still no cure; this fear makes them cautious towards sex. However, following
the Government of Cameroon, GOC (2011) occupations such as teaching, military
and driving precisely camion drivers are noted to be promoting HIV/AIDS
prevalence in Cameroon.
The
statement that the teaching core is correlating with HIV/AIDS prevalence seem
to be confusing with the point on education noted above because teachers are
instructors who are suppose to understand the intricacies centered around the
epidemic. This cannot always be the case, in the sense that teachers have great
access to the unmarried school girls, thus by virtue of communing they turn to
practice unsafe sex. The driving and military profession is time consuming and
stressful jobs that can separate couples for days, weeks, months and even
years; hence the quest for partners to satisfy their sexual appetite may result
to unsafe sex and consequently contracting HIV/AIDS. In the same line, the
quest for seeking for employment as well as the lack of money for survival or
the search for better welfare especially from the feminine sex may engender
illegal sex and so increasing the prevalence of the epidemic.
Other
factors similarly affecting HIV/AIDS as those mentioned above are: the use of
condom, in this case where the tendency is for condom to be use in every act of
sex then the probability of transmission will reduce but where the reverse
occurs then the prevalence will increase. Listen to the radio constantly or
once in a while help individuals to be informed on the science/mechanism of
HIV/AIDS and so reducing its prevalence as to otherwise. The wealth status of
an individual also influences the prevalence of the epidemic. Where individuals
are poor, they turn to practice different means of survival including
cohabitation, prostitution and other methods of sex working. By so doing they
turn to fuel the prevalence of HIV/AIDS epidemic. On a final note singlehood
promote HIV/AIDS prevalence as compared to married people.
As
concerning the tests
of joint significance of coefficients on linear, and squared term for R,
/F
statistics (p-values), the value of Chi2/F2 (480.75
[10, 11721; 0.0000]) reveals that the result of the HIV/AIDS function is valid
and acceptable for inference. This is also supported by the value of the
R-squared (0.2909) to showing that our result is relevant and significance for
analysis. This result is clearly demonstrated in table 2 below:
Table 2: Factors determining HIV/AIDS
Prevalence, Dependent variable: HIV/AIDS
Variable
|
Coef.
|
Std.
Err.
|
T
|
P>|t|
|
HIV/AIDS
Tested Seropositive
|
||||
Education of
complete years of schooling
|
0.1417***
|
0.6785
|
38.10
|
0.000
|
Age of respondents given in years
|
0.6949
|
0.5177
|
0.46
|
0.647
|
Respondents
occupation (1=agriculture, 0 otherwise)
|
0.9751**
|
0.1199
|
2.26
|
0.024
|
Marital status
(1= married, 0 otherwise)
|
0.5637***
|
0.3064
|
18.56
|
0.000
|
Respondents
currently working (1= working, 0 otherwise)
|
0.3702***
|
0.7151
|
3.47
|
0.001
|
Use of condom
during sex (1= actually used condom, 0 otherwise)
|
0.5208***
|
0.7635
|
5.59
|
0.000
|
Sex of
household sex (1= male, 0 otherwise)
|
0.8041***
|
0.6676
|
-8.08
|
0.000
|
Listen to radio
(1= actually listen to radio, 0 otherwise)
|
0.7281***
|
0.5706
|
10.06
|
0.000
|
Wealth status
of households (1= non-poor households, 0 otherwise)
|
0.1296***
|
0.6898
|
11.49
|
0.00
|
Household
residence (1= urban, 0 otherwise)
|
0.6227
|
0.7976
|
-1.27
|
0.205
|
Tests of
Joint Significance of Coefficients on Linear, and Squared Term for R,
/F statistics (p-values)
|
||||
Constant
|
0.2288***
|
0.9734
|
14.28
|
0.000
|
R-squared
|
0.2909
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Chi2/F2:
Prob > chi2
|
480.75 [10,
11721; 0.0000]
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Number of
observation
|
11732
|
Source: Computed
by authors from 2011 DHS; *,**, *** represent 10%, 5% and 1% significance
level, while n/a simply means not applicable
Parameter
Estimate of HIV/AIDS function by the Age group.
Correlates
of age groups 15-24, 25-34, 35-44 and age group greater than 45
Considering
the results according to age group, Table 3 below reveals that the age group 15
to 24 is the most affected by HIV/AIDS, closely second by age group 24 to 34.
In these age groups, almost all of the determinant factors are significance at
one percent level apart from household resident that is insignificant
confirming the fact that singularly the place of residence does not influence
HIV/AIDS. It does so through other complementary factors such as education,
cultural practices or environmental malpractice. In the case of age group 24 to
34, household residence and occupation are insignificant.
As
can be expected, the age group 15 to 24 is the most exploratory stage of life;
full of naives, dependence, tenderness and discoveries and school going/job
seeking as well as the most attractive/beautiful stage of human life. By virtue
of these qualities and characteristics, many take the advantage to abuse their
youthfulness, by so doing they contract the epidemic and become seropositive of HIV/AIDS. In the
other hand, in Cameroon the age group 25 to 34 is characterized as: job
seeking, marriage, activeness and dynamism as well as the stage of decision
making in human life. It’s also a transition stage and so many exploit it
wrongly to find themselves in the pool of HIV/AIDS.
The
age group 35 to 44 has few determinants significant at a lower magnitude. It’s
a mature age group, however, factors such as occupation, singlehood, poverty,
education and negligence to information can prompt some individuals to practice
unsafe sex that result to increase prevalence of HIV/AIDS. However, the age
group greater than 45 is the least affected by HIV/AIDS as shown in Table 3.
Parameter
Estimate of HIV/AIDS function by educational level
We
examine the issues of HIV/AIDS with respective to the different educational
level such as individuals with no education, those with primary education,
secondary education level and higher education level for both men and women
respectively.
Table 3: Factors determining HIV/AIDS
Prevalence by age group
Variable
|
Group15_24
|
Group25_34
|
Group35_44
|
> Group45
|
HIV/AIDS
Tested Positive
|
||||
Education of
respondents in complete number of years
|
0.5816***
(23.81)
|
0.4588***
(26.02)
|
0.617***
(15.00)
|
0.1997***
(6.52)
|
Age of respondents given in years
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Respondents
occupation (1=agriculture, 0 otherwise)
|
0.8906***
(2.88)
|
-0.1151
(-0.28)
|
0.8377*
(1.68)
|
0.797
(1.52)
|
Marital status
(1= married, 0 otherwise)
|
0.363***
(14.73)
|
0.259***
(10.78)
|
0.378***
(3.68)
|
0.584*
(1.78)
|
Respondents
currently working (1= working, 0 otherwise)
|
0.613**
(2.38)
|
0.2379***
(2.99)
|
0.1235
(1.52)
|
0.9317
(0.42)
|
Use of condom
during sex (1= actually used condom, 0 otherwise)
|
0.5454**
(2.24)
|
0.5313**
(2.56)
|
0.4049***
(4.75)
|
0.1591
(0.95)
|
Sex of
household sex (1= male, 0 otherwise)
|
-0.1323***
(-5.64)
|
-0.1169***
(-6.58)
|
-0.5567
(-0.86)
|
0.1514
(0.53)
|
Listen to radio
(1= actually listen to radio, 0 otherwise)
|
0.551***
(6.40)
|
0.6157***
(4.81)
|
0.3993***
(6.53)
|
0.1108
(1.56)
|
Wealth status
of households (1= non-poor households, 0 otherwise)
|
0.1512***
(6.39)
|
0.5912***
(8.75)
|
0.8078***
(3.81)
|
0.1272
(0.40)
|
Household
residence (1= urban, 0 otherwise)
|
-0.1257
(-0.52)
|
0.9477
(0.13)
|
-0.4511
(-1.63)
|
-0.8975
(-0.18)
|
Tests of
Joint Significance of Coefficients on Linear, and Squared Term for R,
/F statistics (p-values)
|
||||
Constant
|
0.212***
(13.84)
|
0.845***
(15.76)
|
0.8300***
(6.77)
|
0.1458
(0.76)
|
R-squared
|
0.2895
|
0.2965
|
0.2757
|
0.4223
|
Chi2/F2:
Prob > chi2
|
182.58 [9, 4032; 0.0000]
|
258.43[9, 5519; 0.0000]
|
83.92 [9, 1984; 0.0000]
|
12.75[9, 157; 0.0000]
|
Number of
observation
|
4042
|
5529
|
1994
|
167
|
Source: Computed
by authors from 2011 DHS; *,**, *** represent 10%, 5% and 1% significance
level, while n/a simply means not applicable while robust linearized
t-statistics in parentheses, except otherwise specified.
Correlates
of no education, primary, secondary and higher education
Following
the results of Table 4, we observed that most of the determinant factors are
significance for people with no education, primary and secondary school with
only few significant and of a lower magnitude for people in higher education.
Generally, the magnitude of significance is stronger in no education, second by
primary and then secondary education. This means that, people who have not gone to school have a higher
probability of contracting HIV. For instance, among the responses given in the
2011 DHS questionnaire, some of the respondents believe that HIV/AIDS can be
contracted by drinking, eating and smoking together and others believed it’s by
sharing the same bed or seat. In some of the localities of Cameroon, some
individuals look at HIV/AIDS to be something of witchcraft, others said the
virus is found in the condom itself while some others noted that one cannot
attain orgasm with the use of condom, all these believe urges them to practice
unsafe sex.
According
to an interview conducted on the media of Cameroon radio and television,
precisely the radio, the resource person underscored that a majority of the sex
workers in Cameroon are primary and partly secondary school leavers. He noted
that some of these sex workers will accept preservatives if their client wish
or otherwise. This story is different with those in the tertiary level of
education, who understands the actual dangers of HIV epidemic. This result is
shown if Table 4 below.
Table 4: Factors determining HIV/AIDS
Prevalence by educational level
Variable
|
No
education
|
Primary
|
Secondary
|
Higher
|
HIV/AIDS
Tested Positive
|
||||
Education in
complete years
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Age of respondents given in years
|
0..8816***
(15.38)
|
0.771***
(25.47)
|
0.8487***
(12.48)
|
0.24155
(1.12)
|
Respondents
occupation (1=agriculture, 0 otherwise)
|
-0.8581
(-0.20)
|
0.8505***
(2.88)
|
-0.2539
(-0.62)
|
0.5608
(0.64)
|
Marital status
(1= married, 0 otherwise)
|
0.778***
(12.23)
|
0.724***
(11.53)
|
0.857***
(10.37)
|
0.129***
(3.11)
|
Respondents
currently working (1= working, 0 otherwise)
|
-0.0102
(-1.29)
|
0.4626***
(5.35)
|
0.6417
(0.72)
|
-0.622**
(-2.30)
|
Use of condom
during sex (1= actually used condom, 0 otherwise)
|
0.7747***
(3.50)
|
0.8177***
(5.01)
|
0.4321**
(2.04)
|
0.1082
(0.40)
|
Sex of
household sex (1= male, 0 otherwise)
|
-0.4199***
(-4.07)
|
-0.0747***
(-8.32)
|
-0.4884***
(-3.07)
|
0.1718
(0.75)
|
Listen to radio
(1= actually listen to radio, 0 otherwise)
|
0.0999***
(3.39)
|
0.1679***
(9.05)
|
0.7201***
(7.57)
|
0.5272
(1.60)
|
Wealth status
of households (1= non-poor households, 0 otherwise)
|
0.104***
(9.02)
|
0.9796***
(5.36)
|
0.1312***
(7.46)
|
-0.882
(-0.64)
|
Household
residence (1= urban, 0 otherwise)
|
-0.0464***
(-4.08)
|
0.0387
(0.31)
|
0.2296**
(2.13)
|
0.9468**
(2.29)
|
Tests of
Joint Significance of Coefficients on Linear, and Squared Term for R,
/F statistics (p-values)
|
||||
Constant
|
0.045***
(12.86)
|
0.977***
(13.81)
|
0.831***
(16.86)
|
0.733***
(8.24)
|
R-squared
|
0.3967
|
0.1951
|
0.1016
|
0.0341
|
Chi2/F2:
Prob > chi2
|
260.17[9, 3561;
0.0000]
|
169.65[9, 6299;
0.0000]
|
68.79[9, 5475;
0.0000]
|
3.33[9, 848;
0.0005]
|
Number of
observation
|
3571
|
6309
|
5485
|
858
|
Source: Computed
by authors from 2011 DHS; *,**, *** represent 10%, 5% and 1% significance level
while robust linearized t-statistics in parentheses, except otherwise
specified.
CONCLUSION
From
the foregoing, this study is entitle; the determinants of the HIV/AIDS epidemics prevalence in Cameroon. The objectives
targeted are: (1) examine the factors influencing the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in
Cameroon, (2) explore the factors fuelling HIV/AIDS by age group, (3) decompose
the determinants of the prevalence of HIV/AIDS by educational level and (4)
suggest policies to ameliorate HIV/AIDS prevalence on the basis of our
analysis. Methodologically, our unit of observation is the men and women tested
HIV positive in 2011. The HIV variable was imported in to the DHS from
UNAIDS/WHO collected respectively in 2011 in Cameroon. We used the Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) estimate computed in Stata 10.1 to determine our result.
The
results show that factors such as: marital status, education in complete years
of schooling, labour participation, sex of household head, respondent
occupation, place of residence, frequency of listening to the radio and wealth
index are strong determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Cameroon using 2011
DHS. The result by age groups reveals that age group 15 to 24 years is hardest
hit by HIV/AIDS and second by age group 25 to 34 years. The results by education level reveal that, HIV/AIDS affects
more people, who did not go to school, second by primary and secondary. Based
on these results, we recommend that decision makers and academic authorities
should design adult literacy programs and school courses gear towards HIV/AIDS
awareness. This is a logical step towards increasing productivity,
poverty/inequality reduction as well as increasing the stock of health of
Cameroonians due to HIV/AIDS complications.
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How to
cite this article: Agbor EE, Tambi MD. Determinants of the HIV/AIDS epidemics prevalence
in Cameroon. Int J
Res Rev. 2014;1(2):8-19.
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