Research Paper
Year: 2018 | Month: December | Volume: 5 | Issue: 12 | Pages: 290-296
On Reported Cases of Road Traffic Offences in Anambra State, Nigeria
Bilesanmi, A. O.
Department of General Studies, Petroleum Training Institute, Effurum-Delta State, Nigeria
ABSTRACT
This study examined the reported cases of road traffic offences in Anambra State, Nigeria. This study employed secondary source of data collection. The statistical tools used for analyzing the data were the time series analysis, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test and measures of accuracy. The findings of this study revealed that the number of traffic offence was stationary and can be used for making future forecast of the series. It was found that road traffic offences has an increasing trend over the period with sharp decline in the month of January and June. Findings on comparison of the trend models showed that the quadratic model gives the least mean square deviation values. Hence the quadratic model was selected as the adequate trend model for estimating reported cases of traffic offences. Also, the result of comparison of decomposition model found the multivariate model to give the least accuracy measure. Hence the multivariate model was selected as the adequate decomposition model for assessing reported cases of traffic offences. Further findings showed that February recorded highest seasonal index while December recorded the least index. The sharp decrease recorded in the month of December is as a result of the federal road safety corps deploying its personnel on the local and high ways during the festive season. The presence of these personnel help in maintaining free flow of traffic and drivers upon seeing them tend to reduce the speed.
Key words: Decomposition model, Trend analysis, Offences, Season, Stationarity
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