Original Research Article
Year: 2020 | Month: April | Volume: 7 | Issue: 4 | Pages: 194-207
A Study on Forecasting of Daily Deaths using Statistical Models and Consciousness of Students towards COVID-19 in Kashmir
Bilal Ahmad Bhat1, Samira Khan2, Shazia Manzoor3, Aadil Tibetbaqal4, Sidrat-ul-Muntaha Anees5, Nusrat4, Intizar Ahmad6, Rahil Rafiq Rather7
1Division of Social Science, Faculty of Fisheries, SKUAST-Kashmir, J&K
2Imam Abdur Rahman bin Faisal University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Dammam
3Department of Social Work, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, Kashmir, J&K
4IMFA, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, Kashmir, J&K
5Government College for Women, M.A.Road Srinagar, Kashmir, J&K
6S.H.Institute of Islamic Studies, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, J&K
7Department of Computer Science, IUST, Awantipora, Pulwama, Jammu & Kashmir, J&K
Corresponding Author: Bilal Ahmad Bhat
Published: April 18, 2020
ABSTRACT
We have recently been hit with the news of an epidemic that is currently spreading in the world, and it is known that it could possibly lead to death. The Corona virus (COVID-19), a novel virus named for the crown like spikes that protrude from its surface which can infect both animals as well as people and can cause range of respiratory illnesses from the common cold to lung lesions and pneumonia. It has been labeled a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), with more than 1274022 COVID-19 positive cases in 208 countries and more than 69468 deaths till date i.e., 4th April 2020. Further, the current death rate of the cases which had an outcome worldwide is 21% while in India it is 26% (Worldometer). It seems to spread very easily from person to person, especially in homes, hospitals and confined places. The purpose of this study was to assess awareness of students towards symptoms, causes and prevention of Corona virus in Kashmir valley. This study involves 400 students from different higher education institutions of Kashmir valley surveyed during January 2020 to March 2020. A self-administered questionnaire was developed to obtain respondents information. The secondary data on daily deaths due to Corona virus worldwide was used to forecast daily deaths using stand statistical models. The model with highest value of R2 was used for prediction purpose. Data collected from our survey was analyzed using statistical tools like descriptive statistics, chisquare test and graphical tools. Statistical software IBM SPSS software, version 25 was used for analysis of data. The results of our study showed that students are aware of the symptoms of Corona virus but in majority are not well aware of causes and preventions of this deadly disease. The results obtained by forecasting reveals that we are going to face tough time if this deadly disease is not controlled soon. The forecasted values although it is not possible to exactly forecast the future because of the qualitative nature of forecasting, provide us a valuable information so that we can protect and prepare ourselves for future. The current death rate if continues, the daily deaths may cross 30,000 on 15th May 2020. The respondents were of the opinion that rate of transmission of COVID-19 depends on various factors such as age, sex, climatic condition. The researchers fear Corona virus besides health problems, may result in loss of livelihood, domestic violence, mental health issues and loneliness. Finally, the researchers suggest that every individual should follow his/her religion and support advisory of health ministry to protect himself/herself from this deadly disease, Corona virus. The print and electronic media can play a crucial role in increasing awareness among people regarding Corona virus as in educational institutions seminars, workshops and periodical counseling sessions are not possible due to lockdown to educate students and people about Corona virus.
Keywords: Corona virus, Kashmir, Awareness, Attitude, Practice, Forecasting, Statistics
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